Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #7Indiana
7–1 · Ours #9 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–17FinalWe had IU 29 – NEB 25
Nebraska
5–2 · Ours #14 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IU 61%IU won
IU 61%IU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at IU −9.IU −9oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.3 · NEB covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.48.5final 37 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NEB +7.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
NEB +7.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Josh Hoover12/22 · 263 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4985th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Anthony Colandrea25/44 · 262 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0733rd pct
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Indianaoffense | Played like IU +1.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNebraska | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.8%▼12.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.8%▲1.6 | 83rd |
| 64th | +0.15▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.41 | 36th |
| 86th | +0.49▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.90 | 14th |
| 12th | −0.27▼0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.20 | 88th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
| Nebraskaoffense | defenseIndiana | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | 40.2%▼5.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.2%▼4.7 | 57th |
| 48th | +0.04▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.12 | 53rd |
| 37th | −0.07▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.01 | 63rd |
| 70th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.31 | 30th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| IndianaIU | NebraskaNEB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2524th | Own 2523rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts85th | −1.9 pts12th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4422nd | 8298th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | 0.050th | 0.050th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.2 pts35th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. IU +5.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.1, kicking +2.4, 4th downs +0.7. | +5.776th | −5.724th |
Season so far
Indiana7–1 · 34th-hardest schedule
W
vs North Texas52–16missed −40
vs North Texas52–16missed −40Wvs Howard55–0missed −58
W
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5W
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5W
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5Wat Nebraska20–17missed −9
at Nebraska20–17missed −9L
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5W
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5Nebraska5–2 · 54th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ohio49–21covered −24
vs Ohio49–21covered −24W
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5Wvs North Dakota34–7missed −27.5
W
at Michigan State31–13covered −6
at Michigan State31–13covered −6W
vs Maryland48–23covered −15
vs Maryland48–23covered −15Lvs Indiana17–20covered +9
vs Indiana17–20covered +9L
at Oregon14–17covered +6.5
at Oregon14–17covered +6.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is