Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #6Indiana
7–1 · Ours #8 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–6FinalWe had IU 28 – MICH 22
Michigan
5–3 · Ours #33 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IU 65%IU won
IU 65%IU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at IU −8.IU −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6 · MICH covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.0.42.5final 19 · under by 23.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MICH +7Plost 0.5 to the close
MICH +7Plost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Josh Hoover8/18 · 81 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.742nd pct
- Comp %
- 44.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Tommy Carr20/32 · 167 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Indianaoffense | Played like MICH +7.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 33.3%▼10.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲0.7 | 79th |
| 5th | −0.38▼0.60 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.24 | 95th |
| 3rd | −0.74▼1.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.74▲0.58 | 97th |
| 20th | −0.19▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.04 | 80th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| Michiganoffense | defenseIndiana | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 33.8%▼7.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.8%▲2.7 | 78th |
| 11th | −0.25▼0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.20 | 89th |
| 19th | −0.28▼0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.26 | 81st |
| 16th | −0.22▼0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.16 | 84th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| IndianaIU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3893rd | Own 3374th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.7 pts25th | −3.4 pts3rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5133rd | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.963rd | −3.937th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.5 pts80th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. IU +4.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.9, kicking +1.9, 4th downs −0.7, penalty first downs −1.5. | +4.270th | −4.230th |
Season so far
Indiana7–1 · 34th-hardest schedule
W
vs North Texas52–16missed −40
vs North Texas52–16missed −40Wvs Howard55–0missed −58
W
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5W
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5W
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5W
at Nebraska20–17missed −9
at Nebraska20–17missed −9L
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5Wat Michigan13–6missed −7.5
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5Michigan5–3 · 45th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6W
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5Lvs Indiana6–13covered +7.5
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5Wat Rutgers28–21missed −16.5
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is