Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Oregon State
5–2 · Ours #117 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–33FinalWe had ORST 20 – HOU 33
AP #23Houston
6–2 · Ours #56 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.HOU 78%HOU won
HOU 78%HOU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at HOU −20.5.HOU −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.1 · ORST covered by 8
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.0.50.5final 53 · over by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ORST +20.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
ORST +20.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Braden Atkinson29/48 · 376 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1758th pct
- Comp %
- 60.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Conner Weigman20/30 · 305 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4078th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregon Stateoffense | Played like HOU +11.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseHouston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 41.1%▼13.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.1%▲5.3 | 53rd |
| 52nd | +0.06▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.12 | 48th |
| 61st | +0.17▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.06 | 39th |
| 18th | −0.21▼0.42 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.31 | 82nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Houstonoffense | defenseOregon State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 47.9%▼3.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.9%▼8.6 | 29th |
| 77th | +0.25▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.29 | 24th |
| 78th | +0.37▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.40 | 22nd |
| 67th | +0.16▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.22 | 33rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregon StateORST | HoustonHOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 229th | Own 3057th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts11th | +1.3 pts83rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.623rd | +9.677th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts37th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HOU +1.8: turnovers −5.2, field position +2.5, kicking +2.3, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +1.5. | −1.840th | +1.860th |
Season so far
Oregon State5–2 · 101st-hardest schedule
Lat Houston20–33covered +21
at Houston20–33covered +21L
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5Wvs Montana52–17covered −17.5
W
at UTEP33–7covered −11
at UTEP33–7covered −11W
at Colorado State56–26covered −7
at Colorado State56–26covered −7W
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5W
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5Houston6–2 · 27th-hardest schedule
Wvs Oregon State33–20missed −21
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21Wvs Southern77–6covered −52
Lat Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5W
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5W
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5W
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5W
vs Oklahoma State35–32missed −3.5
vs Oklahoma State35–32missed −3.5L
at Utah13–21missed +6.5
at Utah13–21missed +6.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is