Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #2Georgia
7–1 · Ours #2 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–17FinalWe had UGA 28 – ALA 26
AP #6Alabama
6–2 · Ours #3 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UGA 55%UGA won
UGA 55%UGA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ALA +2.ALA −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.8 · UGA covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.7.51.5final 37 · under by 14.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UGA +1.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
UGA +1.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Gunner Stockton18/22 · 249 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4985th pct
- Comp %
- 81.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Keelon Russell17/32 · 187 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2418th pct
- Comp %
- 53.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgiaoffense | Played like UGA +7.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAlabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.4%▼12.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.4%▼6.0 | 47th |
| 80th | +0.28▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.37 | 20th |
| 86th | +0.49▲0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.53 | 14th |
| 65th | +0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.27 | 35th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.1 | 59th |
| Alabamaoffense | defenseGeorgia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.3%▼3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.3%▼10.6 | 41st |
| 52nd | +0.06▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.24 | 48th |
| 22nd | −0.24▼0.59 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.13 | 78th |
| 95th | +0.49▲0.48 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.79 | 5th |
| 41st | 1▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| GeorgiaUGA | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 161st | Own 2954th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.1 pts22nd | +0.8 pts70th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5951st | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.168th | −6.132nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ALA +4.9: field position +4.7, kicking +1.3, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs −1.5. | −4.928th | +4.972nd |
Season so far
Georgia7–1 · 37th-hardest schedule
Wvs Tennessee State63–3covered −48.5
W
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5W
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5W
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12W
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26Wat Alabama20–17covered +2.5
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5L
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Florida27–8covered −11
vs Florida27–8covered −11Alabama6–2 · 6th-hardest schedule
W
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28W
at Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9W
vs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19W
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5W
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5Lvs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5L
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5W
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is