Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
AP #2Georgia
7–1 · Ours #9 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
45–17FinalWe had UGA 42 – ARK 16
Arkansas
3–4 · Ours #75 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UGA 95%UGA won
UGA 95%UGA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UGA −24.5.UGA −24.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −26.9 · UGA covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.0.54.5final 62 · over by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UGA −24.5Wmatched the close
UGA −24.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Gunner Stockton10/13 · 147 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1353rd pct
- Comp %
- 76.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Relieved in Q4 by Ryan Puglisi
KJ Jackson20/27 · 212 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2162nd pct
- Comp %
- 74.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q1 by AJ Hill
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgiaoffense | Played like UGA +26.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArkansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | 55.3%▲3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.3%▼9.9 | 12th |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.12 | 22nd |
| 48th | +0.03▼0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.05 | 52nd |
| 89th | +0.36▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.15 | 11th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Arkansasoffense | defenseGeorgia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 34.4%▼6.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.4%▲1.0 | 77th |
| 11th | −0.25▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.12 | 89th |
| 22nd | −0.23▼0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.13 | 78th |
| 11th | −0.29▼0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.12 | 89th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| GeorgiaUGA | ArkansasARK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3375th | Own 2415th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts68th | +0.8 pts72nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4727th | 329th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +13.885th | −13.815th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts75th | 0.0 pts42nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UGA +7.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.2, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | +7.181st | −7.119th |
Season so far
Georgia7–1 · 37th-hardest schedule
Wvs Tennessee State63–3covered −48.5
W
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5Wat Arkansas45–17covered −24.5
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5W
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12W
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26W
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5L
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Florida27–8covered −11
vs Florida27–8covered −11Arkansas3–4 · 5th-hardest schedule
Wvs North Alabama31–14missed −40.5
L
at Utah10–43missed +13.5
at Utah10–43missed +13.5Lvs Georgia17–45missed +24.5
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5W
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7L
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5L
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5Wat Vanderbilt31–21covered +5.5
at Vanderbilt31–21covered +5.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is