Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Florida International
3–4 · Ours #102Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–35Our projected score
Liberty
6–1 · Ours #35Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.LIB 87%
LIB 87%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.LIB −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −18.3 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −13.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.45.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.3 · opened 44.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.LIB −14.0-105 DraftKings52% to cover · +1.2% EV
LIB −14.0-105 DraftKings52% to cover · +1.2% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
JJ KohlJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.01104th
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 10
- Turnovers
- 88 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Deshawn PurdieJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1650th
- Comp %
- 59.7
- TD
- 9
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Libertyoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseFlorida International | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | +0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.12 | 9th |
| 29th | 47.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 36.9% | 25th |
| 46th | +0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.09 | 25th |
| 17th | +0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.15 | 4th |
| 18th | 15.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.4% | 33rd |
| Florida Internationaloffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseLiberty | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121st | −0.04 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.12 | 10th |
| 109th | 39.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 33.7% | 5th |
| 100th | +0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.14 | 16th |
| 129th | −0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.10 | 14th |
| 78th | 12.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.9% | 79th |
Team stats
| LibertyLIB | Florida InternationalFIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.757th | −0.186th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +6.611th | −0.887th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 53%56th | 53%58th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.7986th | 2.49136th |
| Time of possession | 30:3631st | 30:4828th |
| Plays per game | 63103rd | 6934th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +8 | −6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 4 – 12 | 16 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 16.6%25th | 15.4%41st |
Season so far
Florida International3–4 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5W
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10L
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
W
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7L
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3L
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10Liberty6–1 · 134th-hardest schedule
L
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5Wvs Gardner-Webb24–23missed −28.5
W
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5W
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5W
at Delaware30–14covered −7
at Delaware30–14covered −7W
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5W
at Kennesaw State34–6covered −9.5
at Kennesaw State34–6covered −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is