Week 7 report · Tue, Oct 13 · 2026 Week 7
Florida International
3–5 · Ours #92 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–27FinalWe had FIU 22 – JXST 27
Jacksonville State
6–2 · Ours #90 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JXST 61%JXST won
JXST 61%JXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JXST −2.5.JXST −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.5 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.5.44.5final 51 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JXST −3Pmatched the close
JXST −3Pmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
JJ Kohl24/39 · 278 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4381st pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Caden Creel16/22 · 214 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2464th pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Internationaloffense | Played like FIU +2.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseJacksonville State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.9%▲2.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.9%▲0.6 | 49th |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.15 | 33rd |
| 75th | +0.32▲0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.44 | 25th |
| 42nd | −0.01▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.10 | 58th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | defenseFlorida International | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.4%▼2.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.4%▼2.8 | 41st |
| 53rd | +0.07▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.13 | 47th |
| 68th | +0.24▲0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.23 | 32nd |
| 35th | −0.06▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.05 | 65th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida InternationalFIU | Jacksonville StateJXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3274th | Own 3374th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −3.5 pts3rd | −0.6 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7489th | 5438th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.424th | +9.476th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts33rd | −0.1 pts40th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FIU +1.0: turnovers +2.6, kicking −2.0, 4th downs −0.3, penalty first downs +0.8. | +1.055th | −1.045th |
Season so far
Florida International3–5 · 108th-hardest schedule
L
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5W
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10L
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
W
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7Lat Jacksonville State24–27push +3
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3L
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10L
at Liberty10–49missed +14
at Liberty10–49missed +14Jacksonville State6–2 · 121st-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2W
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5Wvs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineW
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3Wvs Florida International27–24push −3
vs Florida International27–24push −3Wat New Mexico State24–0covered −3
at New Mexico State24–0covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is