Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Buffalo
5–3 · Ours #126 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–33FinalWe had BUF 20 – FIU 33
Florida International
3–5 · Ours #83 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FIU 78%FIU won
FIU 78%FIU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FIU −10.5.FIU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.9 · FIU covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.3.47.5final 53 · over by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FIU −10.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
FIU −10.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jason Wright13/27 · 185 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3070th pct
- Comp %
- 48.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Elijah Holmes in Q2
JJ Kohl21/37 · 367 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2666th pct
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Buffalooffense | Played like FIU +10.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida International | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | 24.6%▼8.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 24.6%▲20.3 | 95th |
| 36th | −0.04▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04 | 64th |
| 51st | +0.06▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.03 | 50th |
| 13th | −0.25▼0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.17 | 87th |
| 4th | 3▼2.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.3 | 96th |
| Florida Internationaloffense | defenseBuffalo | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | 39.2%▼0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.2%▲4.8 | 60th |
| 56th | +0.09▲0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.03 | 44th |
| 75th | +0.32▲0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.18 | 25th |
| 27th | −0.12▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.21 | 73rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BuffaloBUF | Florida InternationalFIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2631st | Own 3587th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.4 pts97th | +1.3 pts81st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6978th | 7996th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.621st | +10.680th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.6 pts99th | −1.0 pts6th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FIU +4.4: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.4, kicking −0.8, 4th downs −3.4. | −4.430th | +4.471st |
Season so far
Buffalo5–3 · 105th-hardest schedule
Wvs UAlbany21–17missed −18.5
Lat Florida International20–33missed +10
at Florida International20–33missed +10L
at Penn State13–55missed +40
at Penn State13–55missed +40Wvs Robert Morris31–28missed −28
L
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5W
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5W
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7W
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3Florida International3–5 · 108th-hardest schedule
L
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5Wvs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10L
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
W
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7L
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3L
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10L
at Liberty10–49missed +14
at Liberty10–49missed +14Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is