Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Florida International
3–5 · Ours #95 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
9–19FinalWe had FIU 17 – USF 38
South Florida
6–2 · Ours #28 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USF 88%USF won
USF 88%USF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USF −13.5.USF −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −20.3 · FIU covered by 4.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.1.53final 28 · under by 25
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USF −13.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
USF −13.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
JJ Kohl31/50 · 301 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 62.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
South Florida
No passer line for this game
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Internationaloffense | Played like USF +4.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Florida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.8%▼1.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.8%▲4.4 | 65th |
| 16th | −0.18▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.18 | 84th |
| 27th | −0.17▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.28 | 73rd |
| 17th | −0.22▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.20 | 83rd |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.8 | 85th |
| South Floridaoffense | defenseFlorida International | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 42.9%▼3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.9%▼1.1 | 45th |
| 23rd | −0.13▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.10 | 77th |
| 52nd | +0.08▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.06 | 48th |
| 15th | −0.23▼0.37 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.16 | 85th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida InternationalFIU | South FloridaUSF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 227th | Own 4198th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts58th | +3.0 pts99th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7489th | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.870th | −6.830th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts91st | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USF +14.6: turnovers +7.8, field position +6.8, kicking +1.8, 4th downs −1.1, penalty first downs −0.8. | −14.63rd | +14.697th |
Season so far
Florida International3–5 · 108th-hardest schedule
Lat South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5W
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10L
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
W
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7L
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3L
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10L
at Liberty10–49missed +14
at Liberty10–49missed +14South Florida6–2 · 134th-hardest schedule
Wvs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5W
at Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
W
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5L
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5L
at UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6W
vs Kent State29–2covered −21
vs Kent State29–2covered −21W
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is