Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
South Carolina
4–3 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–19FinalWe had SC 26 – FLA 35
AP #16Florida
5–3 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FLA 72%SC won
FLA 72%SC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FLA −14.5.FLA −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.4 · SC covered by 29.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 61.3.59final 57 · under by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SC +14Wbeat the close by 3.5
SC +14Wbeat the close by 3.5Quarterbacksthis game
LaNorris Sellers23/35 · 279 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3373rd pct
- Comp %
- 65.7
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Aaron Philo21/28 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0343rd pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Relieved in Q4 by Tramell Jones Jr.
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Carolinaoffense | Played like SC +6.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.4%▼3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.4%▲4.3 | 47th |
| 72nd | +0.21▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.09 | 28th |
| 69th | +0.25▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.20 | 31st |
| 65th | +0.15▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▲0.02 | 35th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Floridaoffense | defenseSouth Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.3%▼1.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.3%▼0.2 | 44th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.13 | 53rd |
| 48th | +0.03▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.17 | 52nd |
| 48th | +0.03▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.04 | 52nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South CarolinaSC | FloridaFLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3480th | Own 2736th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.2 pts21st | −0.7 pts25th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.369th | −6.331st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.2 pts35th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SC +8.8: turnovers +7.8, field position +2.5, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs −1.5. | +8.886th | −8.814th |
Season so far
South Carolina4–3 · 24th-hardest schedule
W
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5Wvs Towson45–9missed −44.5
L
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3L
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5L
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5Wat Florida38–19covered +10.5
at Florida38–19covered +10.5W
vs Tennessee27–24covered −2.5
vs Tennessee27–24covered −2.5Florida5–3 · 1st-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
W
at Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2W
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4L
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5Lvs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5W
at Texas27–24covered +11.5
at Texas27–24covered +11.5L
at Georgia8–27missed +11
at Georgia8–27missed +11Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is