Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Florida
5–3 · Ours #39 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had FLA 23 – TEX 33
AP #7Texas
5–2 · Ours #9 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEX 73%FLA won
TEX 73%FLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEX −9.5.TEX −11.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10 · FLA covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.3.50.5final 51 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FLA +10Wlost 1.5 to the close
FLA +10Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Tramell Jones Jr.22/35 · 155 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1859th pct
- Comp %
- 62.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Arch Manning14/20 · 173 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0930th pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Floridaoffense | Played like FLA +7.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24th | 34.6%▼11.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.6%▼0.7 | 76th |
| 55th | +0.09▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.26 | 45th |
| 62nd | +0.18▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.30 | 38th |
| 45th | +0.01▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.24 | 55th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Texasoffense | defenseFlorida | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 42.0%▼0.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.0%▲4.7 | 49th |
| 19th | −0.17▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.35 | 81st |
| 34th | −0.09▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.21 | 66th |
| 14th | −0.25▼0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.48 | 87th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| FloridaFLA | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3482nd | Own 2417th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts83rd | +0.7 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8197th | 5030th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.326th | +8.374th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts93rd | −0.7 pts17th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FLA +3.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.6, kicking +0.4, 4th downs +2.3, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns −4.2. | +3.969th | −3.931st |
Season so far
Florida5–3 · 1st-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
W
at Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2W
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4L
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5L
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5Wat Texas27–24covered +11.5
at Texas27–24covered +11.5L
at Georgia8–27missed +11
at Georgia8–27missed +11Texas5–2 · 2nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5W
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2W
vs UTSA30–6missed −30
vs UTSA30–6missed −30W
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5L
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5Lvs Florida24–27missed −11.5
vs Florida24–27missed −11.5Wvs Ole Miss34–27covered −3
vs Ole Miss34–27covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is