Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Florida Atlantic
5–3 · Ours #99 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–66FinalWe had FAU 15 – FLA 39
Florida
5–3 · Ours #33 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FLA 93%FLA won
FLA 93%FLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FLA −27.FLA −25.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −24.3 · FLA covered by 19.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.7.59.5final 87 · over by 27.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FAU +26.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
FAU +26.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Caden Veltkamp34/52 · 276 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1555th pct
- Comp %
- 65.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Aaron Philo16/21 · 275 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8597th pct
- Comp %
- 76.2
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q3 by Tramell Jones Jr.
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Atlanticoffense | Played like FLA +27.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | 38.6%▼10.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.6%▲8.7 | 62nd |
| 53rd | +0.07▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.07 | 47th |
| 32nd | −0.12▼0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.23 | 68th |
| 93rd | +0.42▲0.43 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.29 | 7th |
| 15th | 2▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
| Floridaoffense | defenseFlorida Atlantic | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90th | 56.4%▲13.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.4%▼12.1 | 10th |
| 98th | +0.59▲0.51 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.59▼0.30 | 2nd |
| 95th | +0.75▲0.48 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.75▼0.65 | 5th |
| 94th | +0.47▲0.58 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.18 | 6th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida AtlanticFAU | FloridaFLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2523rd | Own 3164th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.5 pts86th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 3915th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −25.25th | +25.296th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts88th | +0.8 pts89th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FLA +10.7: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.0, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +0.1, penalty first downs +2.3. | −10.79th | +10.792nd |
Season so far
Florida Atlantic5–3 · 110th-hardest schedule
Lat Florida21–66missed +25.5
at Florida21–66missed +25.5W
vs Navy38–30covered +4
vs Navy38–30covered +4W
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5W
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5Wvs Texas Southern66–10covered −47
L
at Army24–56missed +2.5
at Army24–56missed +2.5W
vs Rice51–49missed −9
vs Rice51–49missed −9L
at North Texas41–48covered +14.5
at North Texas41–48covered +14.5Florida5–3 · 1st-hardest schedule
Wvs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
W
at Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2W
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4L
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5L
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5W
at Texas27–24covered +11.5
at Texas27–24covered +11.5L
at Georgia8–27missed +11
at Georgia8–27missed +11Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is