Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
AP #8Florida
5–3 · Ours #13 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–45FinalWe had FLA 27 – MIZ 28
AP #25Missouri
5–2 · Ours #17 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIZ 50%MIZ won
MIZ 50%MIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FLA −5.FLA −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · MIZ covered by 33.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.0.58final 62 · over by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MIZ +5Wlost 0.5 to the close
MIZ +5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Aaron Philo21/34 · 197 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0139th pct
- Comp %
- 61.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Austin Simmons23/30 · 340 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6191st pct
- Comp %
- 76.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Floridaoffense | Played like MIZ +27.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMissouri | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | 31.1%▼15.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.1%▲6.3 | 84th |
| 19th | −0.17▼0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.13 | 81st |
| 59th | +0.15▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.24 | 41st |
| 1st | −0.66▼0.74 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.66▲0.67 | 99th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.4 | 21st |
| Missourioffense | defenseFlorida | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 50.9%▲15.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.9%▼5.6 | 20th |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.22 | 17th |
| 88th | +0.56▲0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.55 | 12th |
| 41st | −0.02▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.21 | 59th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| FloridaFLA | MissouriMIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2631st | Own 2522nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.1 pts51st | +1.4 pts84th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4524th | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.727th | +7.773rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MIZ +5.6: field position −0.4, kicking +0.9, 4th downs +0.9, return touchdowns +4.2. | −5.624th | +5.676th |
Season so far
Florida5–3 · 1st-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
W
at Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2W
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4Lat Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5L
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5W
at Texas27–24covered +11.5
at Texas27–24covered +11.5L
at Georgia8–27missed +11
at Georgia8–27missed +11Missouri5–2 · 23rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54–14missed −55.5
W
at Kansas38–21covered −4
at Kansas38–21covered −4W
vs Troy27–17missed −27
vs Troy27–17missed −27L
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5Wvs Florida45–17covered +5.5
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5W
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5Lat Ole Miss3–31missed +4.5
at Ole Miss3–31missed +4.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is