Week 1 report · Thu, Sep 3 · 2026 Week 1
Colorado
3–5 · Ours #76 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–13FinalWe had COLO 21 – GT 34
Georgia Tech
2–5 · Ours #35 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.GT 77%COLO won
GT 77%COLO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at GT −6.5.GT −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.7 · COLO covered by 7.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.8.52.5final 27 · under by 25.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GT −6.5Lmatched the close
GT −6.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Julian Lewis13/26 · 116 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0336th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Alberto Mendoza17/23 · 237 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4078th pct
- Comp %
- 73.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coloradooffense | Played like GT +2.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.4%▼2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.4%▲7.6 | 63rd |
| 40th | −0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.28 | 60th |
| 40th | −0.04▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.32 | 60th |
| 45th | +0.01▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.20 | 55th |
| 79th | 0▲2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0 | 21st |
| Georgia Techoffense | defenseColorado | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.5%▼6.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.5%▲2.6 | 63rd |
| 45th | +0.02▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.01 | 55th |
| 79th | +0.38▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.26 | 21st |
| 7th | −0.37▼0.54 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.29 | 93rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ColoradoCOLO | Georgia TechGT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3168th | Own 2742nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts7th | −3.9 pts2nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 5234th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.542nd | +2.558th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.2 pts61st | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. COLO +9.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.4, kicking +1.2, 4th downs +0.2, return touchdowns +4.2. | +9.687th | −9.613th |
Season so far
Colorado3–5 · 12th-hardest schedule
Wat Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5Wvs Weber State52–21missed −38.5
L
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5L
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-game
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5L
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5L
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5W
vs Kansas State27–24push −3
vs Kansas State27–24push −3Georgia Tech2–5 · 49th-hardest schedule
Lvs Colorado13–14missed −6.5
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5L
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12Wvs Mercer44–11missed −38.5
L
at Stanford27–34missed −3
at Stanford27–34missed −3W
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5L
at Virginia Tech24–34missed +8.5
at Virginia Tech24–34missed +8.5L
vs Boston College27–49missed −6.5
vs Boston College27–49missed −6.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 3, 7:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is