Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #2BYU
6–1 · Ours #13 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–39FinalWe had BYU 30 – UCF 16
UCF
4–4 · Ours #58 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BYU 81%UCF won
BYU 81%UCF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BYU −6.5.BYU −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14 · UCF covered by 15.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.9.43.5final 70 · over by 26.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BYU −6.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
BYU −6.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Bear Bachmeier16/32 · 257 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2767th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Keyone Jenkins24/41 · 291 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3977th pct
- Comp %
- 58.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BYUoffense | Played like UCF +7.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUCF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.7%▼7.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.7%▲1.9 | 50th |
| 63rd | +0.15▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.06 | 37th |
| 71st | +0.27▼0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.02 | 29th |
| 52nd | +0.05▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.12 | 48th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| UCFoffense | defenseBYU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85th | 52.7%▲15.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.7%▼16.6 | 15th |
| 73rd | +0.22▲0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.25 | 27th |
| 80th | +0.39▲0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.44 | 20th |
| 50th | +0.04▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.07 | 50th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BYUBYU | UCFUCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2956th | Own 3689th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.1 pts77th | −1.9 pts12th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.841st | +2.859th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts72nd | −0.7 pts15th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UCF +3.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.4, kicking −2.1, 4th downs −1.4, penalty first downs +2.3. | −3.932nd | +3.969th |
Season so far
BYU6–1 · 35th-hardest schedule
Wvs Utah Tech63–7covered −50.5
W
vs Arizona28–17covered −7
vs Arizona28–17covered −7W
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5W
at TCU17–10covered −6
at TCU17–10covered −6W
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12W
vs Notre Dame28–24covered +10.5
vs Notre Dame28–24covered +10.5Lat UCF31–39missed −7.5
at UCF31–39missed −7.5UCF4–4 · 25th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bethune-Cookman73–6covered −43
L
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7W
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5Wvs TCU21–13covered +3.5
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5L
at Houston17–27covered +10.5
at Houston17–27covered +10.5L
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10Wvs BYU39–31covered +7.5
vs BYU39–31covered +7.5L
vs Baylor9–41missed +2.5
vs Baylor9–41missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is