Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Buffalo
5–3 · Ours #127 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–55FinalWe had BUF 6 – PSU 44
AP #14Penn State
3–4 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PSU 99%PSU won
PSU 99%PSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PSU −39.5.PSU −40oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −38.1 · PSU covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.5.48.5final 68 · over by 19.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BUF +39.5Llost 0.5 to the close
BUF +39.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jason Wright10/25 · 60 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2220th pct
- Comp %
- 40.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Rocco Becht11/19 · 212 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4178th pct
- Comp %
- 57.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Alex Manske
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Buffalooffense | Played like PSU +37.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePenn State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10.8%▼25.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 10.8%▲31.6 | 99th |
| 8th | −0.31▼0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.31 | 93rd |
| 6th | −0.54▼0.48 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.54▲0.31 | 94th |
| 42nd | −0.01▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.09 | 58th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Penn Stateoffense | defenseBuffalo | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.5%▲8.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.5%▼6.4 | 27th |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.24 | 17th |
| 73rd | +0.29▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.14 | 28th |
| 88th | +0.34▲0.47 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.35 | 12th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BuffaloBUF | Penn StatePSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2314th | Own 3893rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.9 pts74th | +1.5 pts85th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3714th | 3310th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.14th | +27.197th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.7 pts15th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PSU +7.9: turnovers +5.2, field position +5.1, kicking +0.4, 4th downs −1.3, penalty first downs −1.5. | −7.917th | +7.983rd |
Season so far
Buffalo5–3 · 105th-hardest schedule
Wvs UAlbany21–17missed −18.5
L
at Florida International20–33missed +10
at Florida International20–33missed +10Lat Penn State13–55missed +40
at Penn State13–55missed +40Wvs Robert Morris31–28missed −28
L
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5W
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5W
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7W
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3Penn State3–4 · 63rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24Wvs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10L
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5L
vs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1L
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is