Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Massachusetts
4–4 · Ours #114 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–25FinalWe had MASS 24 – BUF 27
Buffalo
5–3 · Ours #109 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BUF 59%BUF won
BUF 59%BUF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BUF −3.5.BUF −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.6 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.2.42.5final 43 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BUF −3Wbeat the close by 4.0
BUF −3Wbeat the close by 4.0Quarterbacksthis game
Logan Inagawa14/25 · 168 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 56.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Jason Wright15/34 · 119 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 44.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Massachusettsoffense | Played like MASS +4.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBuffalo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | 42.6%▲1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.6%▲0.7 | 46th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.10 | 53rd |
| 27th | −0.17▼0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.42 | 73rd |
| 65th | +0.14▲0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.11 | 35th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Buffalooffense | defenseMassachusetts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | 36.5%▲5.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.5%▲7.2 | 70th |
| 34th | −0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.08 | 66th |
| 27th | −0.17▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.06 | 73rd |
| 52nd | +0.06▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.07 | 48th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MassachusettsMASS | BuffaloBUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3063rd | Own 3892nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.2 pts8th | +1.2 pts80th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.451st | −0.449th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts60th | +0.4 pts75th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BUF +8.2: field position +2.5, kicking +2.4, 4th downs +0.4, safeties +2.9. | −8.216th | +8.284th |
Season so far
Massachusetts4–4 · 137th-hardest schedule
W
at Rutgers37–21covered +29
at Rutgers37–21covered +29Wvs Sacred Heart37–10covered −23.5
Wvs Stonehill36–14missed −31
W
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5L
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5L
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5Lat Buffalo18–25push +7
at Buffalo18–25push +7L
at UConn16–35missed +13
at UConn16–35missed +13Buffalo5–3 · 105th-hardest schedule
Wvs UAlbany21–17missed −18.5
L
at Florida International20–33missed +10
at Florida International20–33missed +10L
at Penn State13–55missed +40
at Penn State13–55missed +40Wvs Robert Morris31–28missed −28
L
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5W
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5Wvs Massachusetts25–18push −7
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7W
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 12:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is