Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Buffalo
5–3 · Ours #128 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–8FinalWe had BUF 14 – TOL 38
Toledo
6–2 · Ours #62 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TOL 92%BUF won
TOL 92%BUF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TOL −19.5.TOL −18.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −23.4 · BUF covered by 33.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.6.54.5final 31 · under by 23.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TOL −19.5Llost 1.0 to the close
TOL −19.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jason Wright14/31 · 171 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1427th pct
- Comp %
- 45.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
John Alan Richter22/36 · 203 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0337th pct
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Buffalooffense | Played like TOL +7.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseToledo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 33.3%▲2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲0.7 | 79th |
| 34th | −0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.07 | 66th |
| 31st | −0.14▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.26 | 69th |
| 46th | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.14 | 54th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Toledooffense | defenseBuffalo | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 34.4%▼10.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.4%▲10.5 | 77th |
| 56th | +0.09▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.03 | 45th |
| 52nd | +0.09▼0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.11 | 48th |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.04 | 44th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BuffaloBUF | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3167th | Own 226th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts19th | −4.2 pts1st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7895th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.542nd | +2.558th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.1 pts95th | +0.8 pts89th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BUF +12.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.3, kicking +2.1, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs +3.9. | +12.394th | −12.36th |
Season so far
Buffalo5–3 · 105th-hardest schedule
Wvs UAlbany21–17missed −18.5
L
at Florida International20–33missed +10
at Florida International20–33missed +10L
at Penn State13–55missed +40
at Penn State13–55missed +40Wvs Robert Morris31–28missed −28
L
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5Wat Toledo23–8covered +18.5
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5W
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7W
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3Toledo6–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
W
vs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5W
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5W
at Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21Lvs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5W
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5Wvs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5
vs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is