Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Boise State
6–1 · Ours #53 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–34FinalWe had BOIS 14 – ORE 40
AP #2Oregon
5–3 · Ours #2 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORE 94%ORE won
ORE 94%ORE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORE −24.5.ORE −25oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −26.5 · BOIS covered by 18
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.7.52.5final 61 · over by 8.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ORE −24.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
ORE −24.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Maddux Madsen15/29 · 181 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 51.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Dante Moore29/38 · 387 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2868th pct
- Comp %
- 76.3
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boise Stateoffense | Played like ORE +15.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOregon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 36.4%▼10.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.4%▲1.9 | 71st |
| 27th | −0.10▼0.37 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.07 | 74th |
| 40th | −0.04▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.11 | 60th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.40 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.22 | 78th |
| 79th | 0▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Oregonoffense | defenseBoise State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 46.9%▲8.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.9%▼9.3 | 32nd |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.17 | 32nd |
| 69th | +0.24▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.27 | 31st |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.02 | 46th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boise StateBOIS | OregonORE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2740th | Own 3791st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.9 pts74th | +1.3 pts81st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −11.020th | +11.081st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts77th | −1.9 pts1st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BOIS +1.7: field position −3.5, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +3.1, penalty first downs +2.3. | +1.759th | −1.741st |
Season so far
Boise State6–1 · 71st-hardest schedule
Lat Oregon27–34covered +25
at Oregon27–34covered +25W
vs Memphis38–20covered −9
vs Memphis38–20covered −9Wvs South Dakota38–24missed −27.5
W
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5W
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5W
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5W
at Washington State31–10covered −14.5
at Washington State31–10covered −14.5Oregon5–3 · 7th-hardest schedule
Wvs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5W
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5L
at Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10W
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is