Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Boise State
6–1 · Ours #44 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
32–7FinalWe had BOIS 24 – WMU 26
Western Michigan
6–3 · Ours #65 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WMU 56%BOIS won
WMU 56%BOIS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BOIS −8.BOIS −8.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +2.5 · BOIS covered by 16.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.1.50.5final 39 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Maddux Madsen16/23 · 204 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4380th pct
- Comp %
- 69.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Broc Lowry15/28 · 110 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.505th pct
- Comp %
- 53.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boise Stateoffense | Played like BOIS +24.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWestern Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | 51.9%▲8.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.9%▼9.5 | 18th |
| 77th | +0.26▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.20 | 23rd |
| 80th | +0.39▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.28 | 20th |
| 68th | +0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.17 | 32nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Western Michiganoffense | defenseBoise State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.9%▼3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.9%▲0.3 | 61st |
| 11th | −0.25▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.35 | 89th |
| 7th | −0.50▼0.48 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.50▲0.62 | 93rd |
| 53rd | +0.06▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.01 | 47th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boise StateBOIS | Western MichiganWMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2849th | Own 2736th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts7th | −2.3 pts8th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5234th | 3613th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +23.795th | −23.76th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.3 pts33rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BOIS +2.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.7, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs −0.8. | +2.865th | −2.835th |
Season so far
Boise State6–1 · 71st-hardest schedule
L
at Oregon27–34covered +25
at Oregon27–34covered +25W
vs Memphis38–20covered −9
vs Memphis38–20covered −9Wvs South Dakota38–24missed −27.5
Wat Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5W
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5W
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5W
at Washington State31–10covered −14.5
at Washington State31–10covered −14.5Western Michigan6–3 · 123rd-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5Wvs Monmouth49–14covered −29.5
W
at Rice28–21missed −8.5
at Rice28–21missed −8.5Lvs Boise State7–32missed +8.5
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5W
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5W
vs Kent State38–7covered −14
vs Kent State38–7covered −14W
at Central Michigan21–14missed −7.5
at Central Michigan21–14missed −7.5L
at Toledo38–45missed +2.5
at Toledo38–45missed +2.5W
vs Bowling Green23–10missed −14
vs Bowling Green23–10missed −14Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is