Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 10:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Texas State
4–3 · Ours #68Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–34Our projected score
AP #20Boise State
6–1 · Ours #24Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.BOIS 66%
BOIS 66%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.BOIS −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.5 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −12.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.63.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 60.5 · opened 65.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.TXST +10.5-105 FanDuel52% to cover · +0.7% EV
TXST +10.5-105 FanDuel52% to cover · +0.7% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Brad JacksonSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3216th
- Comp %
- 68.6
- TD
- 14
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
Maddux MadsenSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2531st
- Comp %
- 65.3
- TD
- 14
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Boise Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseTexas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | +0.22 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.14 | 113th |
| 31st | 47.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.6% | 112th |
| 29th | +0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.28 | 127th |
| 12th | +0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 26th |
| 80th | 12.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.5% | 88th |
| Texas Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseBoise State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | +0.21 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.03 | 64th |
| 4th | 50.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 36.9% | 26th |
| 10th | +0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 78th |
| 40th | +0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.02 | 46th |
| 25th | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.0% | 94th |
Team stats
| Boise StateBOIS | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.468th | −4.3136th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −4.2124th | −2.5111th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 57%34th | 58%19th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.4639th | 4.1759th |
| Time of possession | 30:4829th | 30:0040th |
| Plays per game | 7033rd | 755th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +5 | −8 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 3 – 8 | 15 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 16.9%21st | 13.5%81st |
Season so far
Texas State4–3 · 75th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5L
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
L
at San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10W
vs Colorado State66–27covered −15
vs Colorado State66–27covered −15W
vs Utah State20–17missed −14
vs Utah State20–17missed −14Boise State6–1 · 73rd-hardest schedule
L
at Oregon27–34covered +25
at Oregon27–34covered +25W
vs Memphis38–20covered −9
vs Memphis38–20covered −9Wvs South Dakota38–24missed −27.5
W
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5Wvs Utah State37–18missed −19.5
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5W
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5W
at Washington State31–10covered −14.5
at Washington State31–10covered −14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is