Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #21Boise State
6–1 · Ours #28 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–10FinalWe had BOIS 31 – WSU 22
Washington State
1–7 · Ours #102 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BOIS 72%BOIS won
BOIS 72%BOIS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BOIS −14.BOIS −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.3 · BOIS covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.7.52.5final 41 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WSU +12Llost 2.5 to the close
WSU +12Llost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Maddux Madsen14/24 · 149 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2363rd pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Owen Eshelman21/40 · 191 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2023rd pct
- Comp %
- 52.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boise Stateoffense | Played like BOIS +14.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWashington State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 41.0%▼4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.0%▲1.2 | 54th |
| 76th | +0.24▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.20 | 24th |
| 67th | +0.23▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.15 | 33rd |
| 80th | +0.25▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.25 | 20th |
| 79th | 0▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Washington Stateoffense | defenseBoise State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 33.8%▲2.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.8%▲6.4 | 78th |
| 29th | −0.09▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.15 | 71st |
| 31st | −0.14▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.18 | 69th |
| 43rd | −0.01▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.08 | 57th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boise StateBOIS | Washington StateWSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2631st | Own 2522nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts56th | +1.0 pts76th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6158th | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +18.390th | −18.310th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts94th | +1.2 pts96th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BOIS +2.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.4, kicking −0.5, 4th downs −0.2. | +2.362nd | −2.338th |
Season so far
Boise State6–1 · 71st-hardest schedule
L
at Oregon27–34covered +25
at Oregon27–34covered +25W
vs Memphis38–20covered −9
vs Memphis38–20covered −9Wvs South Dakota38–24missed −27.5
W
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5W
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5W
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5Wat Washington State31–10covered −14.5
at Washington State31–10covered −14.5Washington State1–7 · 36th-hardest schedule
L
at Washington10–24covered +24
at Washington10–24covered +24L
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5Wvs Duquesne48–7covered −38.5
L
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5Lvs Fresno State6–26missed −2
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2Lat Utah State16–17covered +4
at Utah State16–17covered +4L
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5Lvs Boise State10–31missed +14.5
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is