Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Utah State
3–5 · Ours #102 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–37FinalWe had USU 14 – BOIS 34
AP #22Boise State
6–1 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BOIS 87%BOIS won
BOIS 87%BOIS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BOIS −20.5.BOIS −19.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19 · USU covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.0.51.5final 55 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USU +20.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
USU +20.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Grady Brosterhous12/18 · 129 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1327th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Relieved in Q2 by 4923285
Maddux Madsen17/21 · 244 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2767th pct
- Comp %
- 81.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah Stateoffense | Played like BOIS +11.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBoise State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.6%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.6%▲9.0 | 83rd |
| 37th | −0.03▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.09 | 63rd |
| 15th | −0.34▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.42 | 85th |
| 87th | +0.33▲0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.33 | 13th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
| Boise Stateoffense | defenseUtah State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.2%▲0.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.2%▼4.3 | 37th |
| 62nd | +0.13▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.17 | 38th |
| 71st | +0.27▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.32 | 29th |
| 52nd | +0.06▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.09 | 48th |
| 41st | 1▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah StateUSU | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2742nd | Own 2418th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts56th | +1.0 pts75th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 6260th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.930th | +6.970th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.3 pts32nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BOIS +1.6: field position −1.1, kicking +0.5, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −1.642nd | +1.658th |
Season so far
Utah State3–5 · 65th-hardest schedule
Lvs Idaho State17–29missed −15.5
L
at Washington14–16covered +28
at Washington14–16covered +28L
at Utah0–33missed +26.5
at Utah0–33missed +26.5W
vs Troy21–10covered −3
vs Troy21–10covered −3Lat Boise State18–37covered +19.5
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5W
vs Washington State17–16missed −4
vs Washington State17–16missed −4L
at Texas State17–20covered +14
at Texas State17–20covered +14W
vs Colorado State31–14covered −9
vs Colorado State31–14covered −9Boise State6–1 · 71st-hardest schedule
L
at Oregon27–34covered +25
at Oregon27–34covered +25W
vs Memphis38–20covered −9
vs Memphis38–20covered −9Wvs South Dakota38–24missed −27.5
W
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5Wvs Utah State37–18missed −19.5
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5W
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5Wat Washington State31–10covered −14.5
at Washington State31–10covered −14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is