Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Ball State
3–5 · Ours #135 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–26FinalWe had BALL 25 – KENT 30
Kent State
3–6 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KENT 61%KENT won
KENT 61%KENT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KENT −4.KENT −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.7 · KENT covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.50.5final 39 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball Stateoffense | Played like KENT +8.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKent State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7th | 26.4%▼14.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.4%▲23.8 | 93rd |
| 42nd | 0.00▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.13 | 58th |
| 64th | +0.20▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.06 | 36th |
| 15th | −0.23▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.36 | 85th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Kent Stateoffense | defenseBall State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.8%▲3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.8%▲12.4 | 75th |
| 59th | +0.12▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.11 | 41st |
| 69th | +0.26▲0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▲0.11 | 31st |
| 48th | +0.02▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.01 | 52nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball StateBALL | Kent StateKENT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 181st | Own 3586th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.5 pts87th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5336th | 6672nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.539th | +3.561st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts89th | +1.1 pts95th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. KENT +9.6: field position +5.9, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs −0.8, safeties +2.9. | −9.612th | +9.688th |
Season so far
Ball State3–5 · 78th-hardest schedule
L
at Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
L
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5Lat Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3L
vs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21L
at Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35W
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5W
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5Kent State3–6 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5Wvs Wofford36–15covered −10
Lat Ohio State3–59missed +52
at Ohio State3–59missed +52Wvs Ball State26–13covered −3
vs Ball State26–13covered −3L
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5L
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14L
at South Florida2–29missed +21
at South Florida2–29missed +21W
vs Akron35–20covered −3
vs Akron35–20covered −3Lat Sacramento State10–31missed −7
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is