Board · Wed, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 10Week 10 report
Ball State
3–5 · Ours #128Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–28Our projected score
Massachusetts
4–4 · Ours #119Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MASS 55%
MASS 55%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.MASS −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −3.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.48.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 53.6 · first seen 48.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.BALL +4.5-110 DraftKings52% to cover · -0.8% EV
BALL +4.5-110 DraftKings52% to cover · -0.8% EVThe matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Massachusettsoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseBall State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | +0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.13 | 110th |
| 95th | 40.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.2% | 78th |
| 73rd | +0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.21 | 120th |
| 85th | +0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.05 | 77th |
| 88th | 11.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.2% | 99th |
| Ball Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMassachusetts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | +0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.05 | 29th |
| 105th | 40.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 38.6% | 36th |
| 47th | +0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.17 | 14th |
| 114th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.06 | 84th |
| 118th | 10.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 9.8% | 20th |
Team stats
| MassachusettsMASS | Ball StateBALL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.519th | −1.1104th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −1.394th | +1.653rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 51%66th | 39%130th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9873rd | 4.4441st |
| Time of possession | 27:12105th | 28:2485th |
| Plays per game | 58132nd | 6491st |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | −6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 14 | 12 – 6 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.6%61st | 13.9%75th |
Season so far
Ball State3–5 · 78th-hardest schedule
L
at Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
L
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5L
at Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3L
vs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21L
at Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35W
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5W
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5Massachusetts4–4 · 137th-hardest schedule
W
at Rutgers37–21covered +29
at Rutgers37–21covered +29Wvs Sacred Heart37–10covered −23.5
Wvs Stonehill36–14missed −31
Wat Sacramento State35–6covered −5
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5L
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5L
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5L
at Buffalo18–25push +7
at Buffalo18–25push +7L
at UConn16–35missed +13
at UConn16–35missed +13Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is