Ball State
3–5 · Ours #128Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–35Our projected score
Ohio
6–2 · Ours #76Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.OHIO 84%
OHIO 84%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. OHIO −16.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 53.0
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Ohiooffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseBall State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.13 | 110th |
| 25th | 48.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.2% | 78th |
| 62nd | +0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.21 | 120th |
| 38th | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.05 | 77th |
| 51st | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.2% | 99th |
| Ball Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOhio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | +0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.03 | 65th |
| 105th | 40.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.4% | 58th |
| 47th | +0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 70th |
| 114th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.02 | 66th |
| 118th | 10.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.9% | 49th |
Team stats
| OhioOHIO | Ball StateBALL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.813th | −1.1104th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +1.064th | +1.653rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 59%18th | 39%130th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9179th | 4.4441st |
| Time of possession | 25:06124th | 28:2485th |
| Plays per game | 62110th | 6491st |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | −6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 11 | 12 – 6 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.7%60th | 13.9%75th |
Season so far
Ball State3–5 · 78th-hardest schedule
L
at Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
L
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5L
at Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3L
vs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21L
at Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35W
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5W
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5Ohio6–2 · 136th-hardest schedule
L
at Nebraska21–49missed +24
at Nebraska21–49missed +24W
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2L
at South Alabama36–41covered +7
at South Alabama36–41covered +7Wvs Stonehill35–7missed −32.5
Wat Kent State13–10missed −3.5
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5W
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5Wat Sacramento State48–7covered −17
at Sacramento State48–7covered −17W
vs Eastern Michigan24–20missed −10
vs Eastern Michigan24–20missed −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is