Week 8 report · Fri, Oct 23 · 2026 Week 8
Air Force
6–2 · Ours #78 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–28FinalWe had AF 28 – WYO 19
Wyoming
5–3 · Ours #117 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.AF 70%WYO won
AF 70%WYO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at AF −6.5.AF −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.1 · WYO covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.1.46.5final 42 · under by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AF −6Lmatched the close
AF −6Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Howard Fisher IV3/7 · 36 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.05
- Comp %
- 42.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Evan Medders in Q4
Tyler Hughes10/17 · 112 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1858th pct
- Comp %
- 58.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Air Forceoffense | Played like WYO +0.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWyoming | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 53.3%▲4.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.3%▼7.4 | 14th |
| 82nd | +0.31▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.21 | 18th |
| 59th | +0.16▲0.52 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.15 | 41st |
| 89th | +0.35▲0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.13 | 11th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
| Wyomingoffense | defenseAir Force | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.3%▲2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.3%▼5.5 | 34th |
| 85th | +0.34▲0.36 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.26 | 15th |
| 62nd | +0.18▲0.41 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.10 | 38th |
| 94th | +0.46▲0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.46▼0.37 | 6th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Air ForceAF | WyomingWYO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2629th | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.8 pts91st | −2.3 pts7th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 4118th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.234th | +5.266th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WYO +8.1: turnovers +7.8, field position +2.3, kicking −2.9, penalty first downs +0.8. | −8.116th | +8.184th |
Season so far
Air Force6–2 · 117th-hardest schedule
Wvs Duquesne34–0covered −31.5
L
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2W
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5W
vs Navy14–9covered −3
vs Navy14–9covered −3W
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7W
vs UNLV41–31covered +1
vs UNLV41–31covered +1Lat Wyoming14–28missed −6QB change mid-game
at Wyoming14–28missed −6QB change mid-gameW
vs UConn35–26covered +1
vs UConn35–26covered +1Wyoming5–3 · 138th-hardest schedule
L
at Colorado State13–35missed +3
at Colorado State13–35missed +3Wvs Northern Colorado21–13missed −23
L
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1W
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2Lat North Dakota State0–28missed +17
at North Dakota State0–28missed +17W
at San José State16–13covered +4
at San José State16–13covered +4Wvs Northern Illinois41–23covered −7
vs Northern Illinois41–23covered −7Wvs Air Force28–14covered +6
vs Air Force28–14covered +6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 23, 7:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is