Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Wyoming
5–3 · Ours #111 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–35FinalWe had WYO 24 – CSU 28
Colorado State
3–5 · Ours #122 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CSU 60%CSU won
CSU 60%CSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CSU −3.CSU −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.1 · CSU covered by 19
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.3.46.5final 48 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CSU −3.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
CSU −3.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Tyler Hughes12/19 · 130 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.467th pct
- Comp %
- 63.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Hauss Hejny23/33 · 214 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4985th pct
- Comp %
- 69.7
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wyomingoffense | Played like CSU +12.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseColorado State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.1%▲0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.1%▲14.8 | 38th |
| 30th | −0.08▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.57 | 70th |
| 18th | −0.29▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.98 | 82nd |
| 51st | +0.05▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.32 | 49th |
| 1st | 4▼3.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲3.2 | 99th |
| Colorado Stateoffense | defenseWyoming | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.4%▲2.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.4%▼1.6 | 27th |
| 66th | +0.17▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.05 | 34th |
| 76th | +0.33▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.36 | 24th |
| 43rd | 0.00▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.29 | 57th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WyomingWYO | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2844th | Own 3482nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.0 pts94th | −1.5 pts16th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5133rd | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.429th | +7.471st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts78th | +0.8 pts90th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CSU +11.5: turnovers +10.4, field position +2.4, kicking −2.5, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs +0.8. | −11.57th | +11.593rd |
Season so far
Wyoming5–3 · 138th-hardest schedule
Lat Colorado State13–35missed +3
at Colorado State13–35missed +3Wvs Northern Colorado21–13missed −23
L
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1W
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2L
at North Dakota State0–28missed +17
at North Dakota State0–28missed +17W
at San José State16–13covered +4
at San José State16–13covered +4W
vs Northern Illinois41–23covered −7
vs Northern Illinois41–23covered −7W
vs Air Force28–14covered +6
vs Air Force28–14covered +6Colorado State3–5 · 69th-hardest schedule
Wvs Wyoming35–13covered −3
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3Wvs Southern Utah58–24covered −20
L
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-game
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-gameL
at UTSA45–59push +14
at UTSA45–59push +14L
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7L
at Texas State27–66missed +15
at Texas State27–66missed +15W
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1L
at Utah State14–31missed +9
at Utah State14–31missed +9Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is