Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Western Michigan
6–3 · Ours #80 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
12–13FinalWe had WMU 16 – MICH 38
AP #16Michigan
5–3 · Ours #18 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MICH 90%MICH won
MICH 90%MICH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MICH −27.5.MICH −27.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.9 · WMU covered by 26.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.0.49.5final 25 · under by 24.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WMU +27.5Wmatched the close
WMU +27.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Broc Lowry15/21 · 89 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3213th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Bryce Underwood12/23 · 170 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1151st pct
- Comp %
- 52.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western Michiganoffense | Played like MICH +15.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 33.3%▼9.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲0.7 | 79th |
| 22nd | −0.14▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.14▼0.05 | 79th |
| 13th | −0.39▼0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.39▲0.17 | 88th |
| 43rd | 0.00▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.18 | 57th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
| Michiganoffense | defenseWestern Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.6%▲2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.6%▲1.4 | 46th |
| 63rd | +0.14▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.06 | 37th |
| 55th | +0.11▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.05 | 45th |
| 69th | +0.18▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.17 | 31st |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western MichiganWMU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3894th | Own 171st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +3.6 pts99th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 4727th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.05th | +24.095th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WMU +14.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +7.4, kicking +2.6, 4th downs −1.2. | +14.097th | −14.04th |
Season so far
Western Michigan6–3 · 123rd-hardest schedule
Lat Michigan12–13covered +27.5
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5Wvs Monmouth49–14covered −29.5
W
at Rice28–21missed −8.5
at Rice28–21missed −8.5L
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5W
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5W
vs Kent State38–7covered −14
vs Kent State38–7covered −14W
at Central Michigan21–14missed −7.5
at Central Michigan21–14missed −7.5L
at Toledo38–45missed +2.5
at Toledo38–45missed +2.5W
vs Bowling Green23–10missed −14
vs Bowling Green23–10missed −14Michigan5–3 · 45th-hardest schedule
Wvs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6W
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5L
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5W
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is