Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Kent State
3–6 · Ours #130 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–38FinalWe had KENT 14 – WMU 32
Western Michigan
6–3 · Ours #87 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WMU 87%WMU won
WMU 87%WMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WMU −13.5.WMU −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −18.6 · WMU covered by 17
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 45.7.43.5final 45 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WMU −13.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
WMU −13.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Dru DeShields19/35 · 223 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0343rd pct
- Comp %
- 54.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Broc Lowry18/25 · 257 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3575th pct
- Comp %
- 72.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent Stateoffense | Played like WMU +11.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWestern Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 33.3%▲1.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲12.3 | 79th |
| 36th | −0.04▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.15 | 64th |
| 69th | +0.25▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.12 | 31st |
| 5th | −0.42▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.42▲0.52 | 95th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Western Michiganoffense | defenseKent State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 47.1%▲6.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.1%▲0.2 | 32nd |
| 62nd | +0.13▲0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.01 | 38th |
| 71st | +0.27▲0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.14 | 29th |
| 45th | 0.00▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.09 | 55th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent StateKENT | Western MichiganWMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2523rd | Own 3168th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts10th | +0.4 pts59th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5133rd | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.49th | +19.491st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 899th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts90th | −0.1 pts39th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WMU +9.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.3, kicking +1.7, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs +3.9. | −9.213th | +9.287th |
Season so far
Kent State3–6 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5Wvs Wofford36–15covered −10
L
at Ohio State3–59missed +52
at Ohio State3–59missed +52W
vs Ball State26–13covered −3
vs Ball State26–13covered −3L
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5Lat Western Michigan7–38missed +14
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14L
at South Florida2–29missed +21
at South Florida2–29missed +21W
vs Akron35–20covered −3
vs Akron35–20covered −3L
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7Western Michigan6–3 · 123rd-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5Wvs Monmouth49–14covered −29.5
W
at Rice28–21missed −8.5
at Rice28–21missed −8.5L
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5W
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5Wvs Kent State38–7covered −14
vs Kent State38–7covered −14W
at Central Michigan21–14missed −7.5
at Central Michigan21–14missed −7.5L
at Toledo38–45missed +2.5
at Toledo38–45missed +2.5W
vs Bowling Green23–10missed −14
vs Bowling Green23–10missed −14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is