Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Western Michigan
6–3 · Ours #85 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–45FinalWe had WMU 22 – TOL 24
Toledo
6–2 · Ours #73 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TOL 56%TOL won
TOL 56%TOL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TOL −3.5.TOL −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.2 · TOL covered by 4.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.4.47final 83 · over by 36
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WMU +3.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
WMU +3.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Broc Lowry12/29 · 207 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0930th pct
- Comp %
- 41.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
John Alan Richter29/41 · 385 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2162nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western Michiganoffense | Played like TOL +9.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseToledo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 35.5%▼7.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.5%▼1.8 | 74th |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.08 | 46th |
| 34th | −0.09▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.21 | 66th |
| 77th | +0.23▲0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.40 | 23rd |
| 4th | 3▼2.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.2 | 96th |
| Toledooffense | defenseWestern Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 51.1%▲9.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.1%▼8.5 | 20th |
| 66th | +0.17▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.10 | 34th |
| 65th | +0.21▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.08 | 35th |
| 62nd | +0.13▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.11 | 38th |
| 15th | 2▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western MichiganWMU | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2955th | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts52nd | +0.2 pts52nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 8899th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.030th | +7.071st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.3 pts98th | −0.6 pts19th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TOL +8.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.1, 4th downs −2.5, penalty first downs +2.3, return touchdowns +4.2. | −8.615th | +8.685th |
Season so far
Western Michigan6–3 · 123rd-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5Wvs Monmouth49–14covered −29.5
W
at Rice28–21missed −8.5
at Rice28–21missed −8.5L
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5W
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5W
vs Kent State38–7covered −14
vs Kent State38–7covered −14W
at Central Michigan21–14missed −7.5
at Central Michigan21–14missed −7.5Lat Toledo38–45missed +2.5
at Toledo38–45missed +2.5W
vs Bowling Green23–10missed −14
vs Bowling Green23–10missed −14Toledo6–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
W
vs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5W
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5W
at Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21Lvs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5W
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5Wvs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5
vs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is