Week 6 report · Fri, Oct 9 · 2026 Week 6
Washington State
1–7 · Ours #105 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–17FinalWe had WSU 23 – USU 22
Utah State
3–5 · Ours #97 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WSU 52%USU won
WSU 52%USU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USU −3.5.USU −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +0.8 · WSU covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 45.1.43.5final 33 · under by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WSU +4Wmatched the close
WSU +4Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Caden Pinnick23/36 · 156 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3312th pct
- Comp %
- 63.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Grady Brosterhous11/27 · 150 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1525th pct
- Comp %
- 40.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washington Stateoffense | Played like USU +0.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUtah State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 28.4%▼3.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.4%▲15.3 | 90th |
| 18th | −0.17▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.19 | 82nd |
| 15th | −0.33▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.38 | 85th |
| 50th | +0.04▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.07 | 50th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Utah Stateoffense | defenseWashington State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | 28.8%▼8.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.8%▲15.4 | 89th |
| 17th | −0.18▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.29 | 83rd |
| 29th | −0.15▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.28 | 71st |
| 16th | −0.22▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.31 | 84th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washington StateWSU | Utah StateUSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 229th | Own 3689th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +3.0 pts99th | −1.1 pts22nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.638th | +3.662nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts75th | −0.5 pts22nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USU +5.3: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.9, kicking −2.9, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs −0.8. | −5.326th | +5.374th |
Season so far
Washington State1–7 · 36th-hardest schedule
L
at Washington10–24covered +24
at Washington10–24covered +24L
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5Wvs Duquesne48–7covered −38.5
L
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5L
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2Lat Utah State16–17covered +4
at Utah State16–17covered +4L
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5L
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5Utah State3–5 · 65th-hardest schedule
Lvs Idaho State17–29missed −15.5
Lat Washington14–16covered +28
at Washington14–16covered +28L
at Utah0–33missed +26.5
at Utah0–33missed +26.5W
vs Troy21–10covered −3
vs Troy21–10covered −3Lat Boise State18–37covered +19.5
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5Wvs Washington State17–16missed −4
vs Washington State17–16missed −4L
at Texas State17–20covered +14
at Texas State17–20covered +14W
vs Colorado State31–14covered −9
vs Colorado State31–14covered −9Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 9, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is