Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Washington State
1–7 · Ours #104 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–48FinalWe had WSU 18 – ORST 33
Oregon State
5–2 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORST 82%ORST won
ORST 82%ORST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORST −16.5.ORST −18.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.1 · WSU covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.8.52final 78 · over by 26
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WSU +18Plost 0.5 to the close
WSU +18Plost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Owen Eshelman32/49 · 289 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2162nd pct
- Comp %
- 65.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Braden Atkinson23/38 · 347 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2060th pct
- Comp %
- 60.5
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washington Stateoffense | Played like ORST +3.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOregon State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.9%▲12.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.9%▼1.4 | 49th |
| 74th | +0.23▲0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.26 | 26th |
| 64th | +0.21▲0.50 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.20 | 36th |
| 82nd | +0.27▲0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.35 | 18th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Oregon Stateoffense | defenseWashington State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.7%▼7.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.7%▼4.3 | 36th |
| 77th | +0.26▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.22 | 23rd |
| 63rd | +0.20▼0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.12 | 37th |
| 88th | +0.34▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.35 | 12th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washington StateWSU | Oregon StateORST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2417th | Own 2629th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.1 pts51st | +2.2 pts96th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7489th | 7081st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.630th | +6.670th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.9 pts91st | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ORST +0.9: field position +0.6, kicking +1.5, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs −0.8. | −0.946th | +0.954th |
Season so far
Washington State1–7 · 36th-hardest schedule
L
at Washington10–24covered +24
at Washington10–24covered +24L
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5Wvs Duquesne48–7covered −38.5
L
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5L
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2L
at Utah State16–17covered +4
at Utah State16–17covered +4Lat Oregon State30–48covered +18.5
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5L
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5Oregon State5–2 · 101st-hardest schedule
L
at Houston20–33covered +21
at Houston20–33covered +21L
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5Wvs Montana52–17covered −17.5
W
at UTEP33–7covered −11
at UTEP33–7covered −11W
at Colorado State56–26covered −7
at Colorado State56–26covered −7W
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5Wvs Washington State48–30missed −18.5
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is