Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Arkansas
3–4 · Ours #81 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–21FinalWe had ARK 26 – VAN 32
Vanderbilt
3–5 · Ours #69 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VAN 65%ARK won
VAN 65%ARK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VAN −6.5.VAN −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6 · ARK covered by 15.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.1.48.5final 52 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARK +6Wbeat the close by 0.5
ARK +6Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
KJ Jackson21/31 · 251 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2868th pct
- Comp %
- 67.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Jared Curtis19/31 · 274 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0337th pct
- Comp %
- 61.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansasoffense | Played like ARK +8.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVanderbilt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 48.6%▲11.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.6%▼1.5 | 26th |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.05 | 32nd |
| 72nd | +0.28▲0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.10 | 29th |
| 59th | +0.10▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.01 | 41st |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Vanderbiltoffense | defenseArkansas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.0%▲6.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▲2.4 | 38th |
| 39th | −0.02▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.23 | 61st |
| 41st | −0.03▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.13 | 59th |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.29 | 57th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArkansasARK | VanderbiltVAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2630th | Own 2526th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.9 pts24th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7285th | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.748th | +0.752nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARK +10.1: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.2, kicking −0.6, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +10.189th | −10.111th |
Season so far
Arkansas3–4 · 5th-hardest schedule
Wvs North Alabama31–14missed −40.5
L
at Utah10–43missed +13.5
at Utah10–43missed +13.5L
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5W
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7L
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5L
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5Wat Vanderbilt31–21covered +5.5
at Vanderbilt31–21covered +5.5Vanderbilt3–5 · 17th-hardest schedule
Wvs Austin Peay28–9missed −28.5
W
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5W
vs NC State35–31covered −3
vs NC State35–31covered −3L
at Auburn15–21covered +10
at Auburn15–21covered +10Lat Georgia14–38covered +26
at Georgia14–38covered +26L
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5Lvs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5L
at Kentucky17–34missed +11
at Kentucky17–34missed +11Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is