Week 6 report · Thu, Oct 8 · 2026 Week 6
South Florida
6–2 · Ours #70 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–31FinalWe had USF 23 – UTSA 28
UTSA
7–1 · Ours #72 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTSA 62%UTSA won
UTSA 62%UTSA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTSA −6.5.UTSA −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5 · UTSA covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.6.49.5final 55 · over by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USF +7Pbeat the close by 1.0
USF +7Pbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Michael Van Buren Jr.1/1 · 42 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +3.81
- Comp %
- 100.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q2 by Luke Kromenhoek
Owen McCown22/31 · 209 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0646th pct
- Comp %
- 71.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Floridaoffense | Played like UTSA +3.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUTSA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.7%▼4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.7%▲0.1 | 50th |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.07 | 28th |
| 74th | +0.30▲0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.01 | 27th |
| 61st | +0.12▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.01 | 39th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| UTSAoffense | defenseSouth Florida | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 56.0%▲13.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.0%▼17.5 | 11th |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.26 | 32nd |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.05 | 53rd |
| 86th | +0.32▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.44 | 14th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South FloridaUSF | UTSAUTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2950th | Own 227th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts52nd | +1.5 pts86th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 7591st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.030th | +7.070th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | −0.6 pts19th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USF +5.4: field position +2.3, kicking −0.9, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs +2.3. | +5.475th | −5.425th |
Season so far
South Florida6–2 · 134th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5W
at Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
W
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5L
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5Lat UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6W
vs Kent State29–2covered −21
vs Kent State29–2covered −21W
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5UTSA7–1 · 89th-hardest schedule
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16covered −28.5
W
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5L
at Texas6–30covered +30
at Texas6–30covered +30W
vs Colorado State59–45push −14
vs Colorado State59–45push −14W
at Rice16–14missed −12.5
at Rice16–14missed −12.5Wvs South Florida31–24covered −6
vs South Florida31–24covered −6W
vs Navy38–34missed −5.5
vs Navy38–34missed −5.5W
at Tulane42–19covered −3
at Tulane42–19covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 8, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is