Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Colorado State
3–5 · Ours #111 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
45–59FinalWe had CSU 22 – UTSA 37
UTSA
7–1 · Ours #69 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTSA 81%UTSA won
UTSA 81%UTSA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTSA −12.5.UTSA −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.6 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.5.57final 104 · over by 47
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Ksaan Farrar29/46 · 344 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3374th pct
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Owen McCown20/30 · 303 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5688th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Colorado Stateoffense | Played like UTSA +5.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUTSA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.6%▼5.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.6%▲0.2 | 51st |
| 87th | +0.36▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.25 | 13th |
| 76th | +0.33▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.04 | 24th |
| 93rd | +0.41▲0.39 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.36 | 8th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| UTSAoffense | defenseColorado State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 48.6%▲4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.6%▲10.7 | 26th |
| 91st | +0.42▲0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.01 | 9th |
| 89th | +0.56▲0.56 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.01 | 11th |
| 85th | +0.31▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.31▲0.02 | 15th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Colorado StateCSU | UTSAUTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3271st | Own 3996th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts84th | −1.0 pts23rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7794th | 7285th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.733rd | +5.767th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.8 pts99th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTSA +3.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.6, kicking −1.7, 4th downs −2.4, penalty first downs +2.3. | −3.532nd | +3.568th |
Season so far
Colorado State3–5 · 69th-hardest schedule
W
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3Wvs Southern Utah58–24covered −20
L
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-game
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-gameLat UTSA45–59push +14
at UTSA45–59push +14L
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7L
at Texas State27–66missed +15
at Texas State27–66missed +15W
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1L
at Utah State14–31missed +9
at Utah State14–31missed +9UTSA7–1 · 89th-hardest schedule
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16covered −28.5
Wat Texas State31–26covered +2.5
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5L
at Texas6–30covered +30
at Texas6–30covered +30Wvs Colorado State59–45push −14
vs Colorado State59–45push −14W
at Rice16–14missed −12.5
at Rice16–14missed −12.5W
vs South Florida31–24covered −6
vs South Florida31–24covered −6W
vs Navy38–34missed −5.5
vs Navy38–34missed −5.5W
at Tulane42–19covered −3
at Tulane42–19covered −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is