Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Oregon State
5–2 · Ours #95 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
33–7FinalWe had ORST 31 – UTEP 26
UTEP
1–7 · Ours #124 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORST 63%ORST won
ORST 63%ORST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORST −12.ORST −11oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.4 · ORST covered by 15
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.1.56final 40 · under by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Braden Atkinson24/34 · 301 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3070th pct
- Comp %
- 70.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
EJ Colson Jr.15/22 · 106 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3312th pct
- Comp %
- 68.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregon Stateoffense | Played like ORST +23.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUTEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | 57.1%▲5.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 57.1%▼7.3 | 9th |
| 77th | +0.26▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.05 | 23rd |
| 73rd | +0.30▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.30▲0.01 | 27th |
| 73rd | +0.20▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.08 | 27th |
| 41st | 1▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| UTEPoffense | defenseOregon State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | 30.0%▼3.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.0%▲12.9 | 87th |
| 20th | −0.16▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.20 | 80th |
| 12th | −0.40▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.53 | 88th |
| 44th | 0.00▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.03 | 56th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregon StateORST | UTEPUTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2314th | Own 2740th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts81st | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4929th | 4017th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +30.898th | −30.82nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 899th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | −0.8 pts12th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTEP +2.3: field position +1.3, kicking −0.9, 4th downs −0.5, penalty first downs +2.3. | −2.338th | +2.362nd |
Season so far
Oregon State5–2 · 101st-hardest schedule
L
at Houston20–33covered +21
at Houston20–33covered +21L
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5Wvs Montana52–17covered −17.5
Wat UTEP33–7covered −11
at UTEP33–7covered −11W
at Colorado State56–26covered −7
at Colorado State56–26covered −7W
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5W
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5UTEP1–7 · 46th-hardest schedule
L
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41Wvs Texas Southern51–10covered −27
L
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5Lvs Oregon State7–33missed +11
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11L
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5L
vs Nevada13–30missed +10
vs Nevada13–30missed +10L
vs San José State11–24missed +7QB change mid-game
vs San José State11–24missed +7QB change mid-gameL
at North Dakota State7–31missed +23.5
at North Dakota State7–31missed +23.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is