Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Louisiana Tech
6–2 · Ours #97 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–0FinalWe had LT 34 – ULM 21
UL Monroe
1–7 · Ours #137 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LT 80%LT won
LT 80%LT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LT −14.5.LT −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.4 · LT covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.0.56final 24 · under by 32
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ULM +14.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
ULM +14.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Blake Baker15/21 · 178 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3977th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Aidan Armenta14/24 · 119 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.663rd pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisiana Techoffense | Played like LT +27.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUL Monroe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.3%▲1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.3%▲6.0 | 57th |
| 51st | +0.06▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.14 | 49th |
| 70th | +0.26▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.06 | 31st |
| 31st | −0.09▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.27 | 69th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| UL Monroeoffense | defenseLouisiana Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.8%▼3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.8%▲3.1 | 75th |
| 1st | −0.59▼0.61 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.59▲0.60 | 99th |
| 4th | −0.66▼0.64 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.66▲0.66 | 96th |
| 3rd | −0.51▼0.55 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.51▲0.49 | 97th |
| 15th | 2▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisiana TechLT | UL MonroeULM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3790th | Own 2628th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −6.3 pts1st | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 4626th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +9.877th | −9.823rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.1 pts39th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LT +1.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.0, kicking −4.5, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs −1.5. | +1.155th | −1.145th |
Season so far
Louisiana Tech6–2 · 79th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northwestern State80–6covered −44.5
L
at LSU14–45covered +35
at LSU14–45covered +35L
at Baylor19–36covered +20
at Baylor19–36covered +20W
vs Army31–29covered −1
vs Army31–29covered −1W
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3Wat UL Monroe24–0covered −13.5
at UL Monroe24–0covered −13.5W
vs Old Dominion26–0covered −14
vs Old Dominion26–0covered −14W
at South Alabama35–20covered −6
at South Alabama35–20covered −6UL Monroe1–7 · 113th-hardest schedule
L
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5L
at UAB20–26covered +9.5
at UAB20–26covered +9.5Lvs SE Louisiana35–38missed −9.5
L
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5Lat South Alabama35–52missed +13.5
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5Lvs Louisiana Tech0–24missed +13.5
vs Louisiana Tech0–24missed +13.5W
at Troy21–14covered +13
at Troy21–14covered +13L
vs Southern Miss21–35missed +3.5
vs Southern Miss21–35missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is