Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
UL Monroe
1–7 · Ours #135 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–62FinalWe had ULM 16 – MSST 38
Mississippi State
4–3 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MSST 91%MSST won
MSST 91%MSST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MSST −28.5.MSST −28.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −22.9 · MSST covered by 20.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.0.54.5final 75 · over by 20.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ULM +28.5Lmatched the close
ULM +28.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Aidan Armenta10/16 · 67 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Austin Carlisle
Kamario Taylor22/34 · 354 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6090th pct
- Comp %
- 64.7
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL Monroeoffense | Played like MSST +38.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMississippi State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.6%▼12.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.6%▲19.3 | 91st |
| 13th | −0.22▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.36 | 87th |
| 18th | −0.30▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.58 | 82nd |
| 25th | −0.14▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.06 | 76th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Mississippi Stateoffense | defenseUL Monroe | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 59.2%▲14.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.2%▼16.1 | 8th |
| 94th | +0.46▲0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.46▼0.32 | 6th |
| 88th | +0.54▲0.54 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.54▼0.39 | 12th |
| 84th | +0.30▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.18 | 16th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL MonroeULM | Mississippi StateMSST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2313th | Own 3058th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.1 pts51st | +0.8 pts71st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 295th | 4929th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −35.81st | +35.899th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts59th | +0.5 pts78th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MSST +2.6: field position +2.3, kicking +0.5, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs −0.8. | −2.637th | +2.663rd |
Season so far
UL Monroe1–7 · 113th-hardest schedule
Lat Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5L
at UAB20–26covered +9.5
at UAB20–26covered +9.5Lvs SE Louisiana35–38missed −9.5
L
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5L
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5L
vs Louisiana Tech0–24missed +13.5
vs Louisiana Tech0–24missed +13.5W
at Troy21–14covered +13
at Troy21–14covered +13L
vs Southern Miss21–35missed +3.5
vs Southern Miss21–35missed +3.5Mississippi State4–3 · 9th-hardest schedule
Wvs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5W
at Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKW
at South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3W
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5L
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5L
at LSU0–31missed +17.5
at LSU0–31missed +17.5L
vs Oklahoma15–23missed +1.5QB change mid-game
vs Oklahoma15–23missed +1.5QB change mid-gameModel cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is