Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
UL Monroe
1–7 · Ours #137 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–14FinalWe had ULM 17 – TROY 34
Troy
4–4 · Ours #98 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TROY 85%ULM won
TROY 85%ULM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TROY −17.5.TROY −13oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.7 · ULM covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.5.50.5final 35 · under by 15.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TROY −16.5Llost 3.5 to the close
TROY −16.5Llost 3.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Aidan Armenta13/22 · 147 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2061st pct
- Comp %
- 59.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q2 by Austin Carlisle
Goose Crowder6/14 · 50 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.692nd pct
- Comp %
- 42.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q1 by Tucker Kilcrease
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL Monroeoffense | Played like TROY +1.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTroy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.7%▼0.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.7%▲4.2 | 65th |
| 20th | −0.16▼0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.22 | 80th |
| 30th | −0.15▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.23 | 71st |
| 21st | −0.18▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.16 | 79th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
| Troyoffense | defenseUL Monroe | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 28.1%▼12.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.1%▲20.2 | 90th |
| 26th | −0.10▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.33 | 74th |
| 6th | −0.53▼0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.53▲0.86 | 94th |
| 59th | +0.10▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.04 | 41st |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL MonroeULM | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2741st | Own 3058th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts64th | −1.4 pts18th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6158th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +8.174th | −8.126th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts85th | +0.9 pts91st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ULM +10.4: turnovers +5.2, field position −0.8, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −0.3, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +10.491st | −10.410th |
Season so far
UL Monroe1–7 · 113th-hardest schedule
L
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5L
at UAB20–26covered +9.5
at UAB20–26covered +9.5Lvs SE Louisiana35–38missed −9.5
L
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5L
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5L
vs Louisiana Tech0–24missed +13.5
vs Louisiana Tech0–24missed +13.5Wat Troy21–14covered +13
at Troy21–14covered +13L
vs Southern Miss21–35missed +3.5
vs Southern Miss21–35missed +3.5Troy4–4 · 106th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5Wvs Alabama State34–17missed −23.5
L
at Missouri17–27covered +27
at Missouri17–27covered +27L
at Utah State10–21missed +3
at Utah State10–21missed +3Wvs Southern Miss55–34covered −10
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10L
at Louisiana6–33missed +3
at Louisiana6–33missed +3Lvs UL Monroe14–21missed −13
vs UL Monroe14–21missed −13W
at James Madison24–21covered +19.5
at James Madison24–21covered +19.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is