Week 1 report · Thu, Sep 3 · 2026 Week 1
UAB
4–4 · Ours #124 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–42FinalWe had UAB 22 – ILL 35
Illinois
5–3 · Ours #44 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ILL 77%ILL won
ILL 77%ILL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ILL −28.5.ILL −25.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.7 · UAB covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.4.54.5final 65 · over by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UAB +28.5Wbeat the close by 3.0
UAB +28.5Wbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Ryder Burton18/30 · 219 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4280th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Katin Houser13/17 · 182 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8898th pct
- Comp %
- 76.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UABoffense | Played like ILL +11.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIllinois | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.4%▲2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.4%▲6.4 | 47th |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.04 | 22nd |
| 74th | +0.31▲0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.31▲0.07 | 26th |
| 79th | +0.24▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.13 | 21st |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Illinoisoffense | defenseUAB | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 55.8%▲11.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.8%▼12.2 | 11th |
| 93rd | +0.44▲0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.42 | 7th |
| 97th | +0.88▲0.82 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.88▼1.10 | 3rd |
| 66th | +0.15▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.03 | 34th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UABUAB | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3479th | Own 2953rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts76th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 4321st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.79th | +19.791st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.5 pts98th | −0.4 pts26th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ILL +1.9: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.7, kicking −0.7, 4th downs −2.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −1.940th | +1.960th |
Season so far
UAB4–4 · 92nd-hardest schedule
Lat Illinois23–42covered +25.5
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5W
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5L
at Louisiana14–21push +7
at Louisiana14–21push +7W
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5Wvs Samford33–14missed −31
L
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5W
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5L
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5Illinois5–3 · 41st-hardest schedule
Wvs UAB42–23missed −25.5
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5L
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5Wvs Southern Illinois48–10covered −35.5
L
at Ohio State19–42covered +26
at Ohio State19–42covered +26L
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5W
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5W
vs Oregon21–10covered +10
vs Oregon21–10covered +10W
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 3, 7:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is