Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
UAB
4–4 · Ours #112 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–30FinalWe had UAB 19 – USF 27
South Florida
6–2 · Ours #67 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USF 71%USF won
USF 71%USF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USF −8.USF −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.8 · USF covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 45.9.41.5final 40 · under by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USF −7.5Wmatched the close
USF −7.5Wmatched the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UABoffense | Played like USF +3.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Florida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | 30.0%▼10.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.0%▲11.4 | 86th |
| 36th | −0.04▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04 | 64th |
| 56th | +0.13▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.06 | 44th |
| 13th | −0.26▼0.33 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.20 | 87th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| South Floridaoffense | defenseUAB | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.8%▼3.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.8%▲3.8 | 50th |
| 33rd | −0.06▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.15 | 67th |
| 3rd | −0.69▼0.63 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.69▲0.66 | 97th |
| 70th | +0.18▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.05 | 30th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UABUAB | South FloridaUSF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2848th | Own 3377th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6054th | 5540th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.134th | +5.166th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts90th | −0.7 pts14th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UAB +0.4: field position −1.7, 4th downs +2.0. | +0.452nd | −0.448th |
Season so far
UAB4–4 · 95th-hardest schedule
L
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5W
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5L
at Louisiana14–21push +7
at Louisiana14–21push +7W
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5Wvs Samford33–14missed −31
L
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5W
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5Lat South Florida10–30missed +7.5
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5South Florida6–2 · 133rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5W
at Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
W
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5L
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5L
at UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6W
vs Kent State29–2covered −21
vs Kent State29–2covered −21Wvs UAB30–10covered −7.5
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is