Week 7 report · Thu, Oct 15 · 2026 Week 7
East Carolina
4–4 · Ours #78 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–30FinalWe had ECU 29 – UAB 22
UAB
4–4 · Ours #119 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ECU 68%UAB won
ECU 68%UAB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ECU −5.5.ECU −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.4 · UAB covered by 17.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.5.49.5final 47 · under by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ECU −4.5Lmatched the close
ECU −4.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Emory Williams18/27 · 126 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1252nd pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Ryder Burton18/36 · 245 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0139th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| East Carolinaoffense | Played like UAB +5.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUAB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 37.0%▲1.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.0%▲10.4 | 68th |
| 31st | −0.07▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.20 | 69th |
| 52nd | +0.08▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.13 | 48th |
| 22nd | −0.17▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.35 | 78th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| UABoffense | defenseEast Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | 36.5%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.5%▲2.0 | 70th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.09 | 53rd |
| 53rd | +0.09▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.25 | 47th |
| 37th | −0.05▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.03 | 64th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| East CarolinaECU | UABUAB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3167th | Own 2633rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts74th | +2.3 pts97th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.628th | +7.672nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | −0.6 pts19th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UAB +6.9: turnovers +5.2, field position −1.8, kicking +1.0, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −6.920th | +6.980th |
Season so far
East Carolina4–4 · 96th-hardest schedule
L
at Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28L
vs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5W
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
W
vs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10Lat UAB17–30missed −4.5
at UAB17–30missed −4.5L
at Memphis34–41covered +10.5QB change mid-game
at Memphis34–41covered +10.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Temple17–9covered −4
vs Temple17–9covered −4UAB4–4 · 92nd-hardest schedule
L
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5W
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5L
at Louisiana14–21push +7
at Louisiana14–21push +7W
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5Wvs Samford33–14missed −31
Lat Memphis13–38missed +14.5
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5Wvs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5L
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 15, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is