Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Rutgers
2–6 · Ours #117 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
37–30FinalWe had RUTG 25 – MD 35
Maryland
2–6 · Ours #77 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MD 73%RUTG won
MD 73%RUTG wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MD −4.5.MD −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10 · RUTG covered by 13
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 60.0.56final 67 · over by 11
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MD −4.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
MD −4.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Dylan Lonergan23/35 · 291 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5186th pct
- Comp %
- 65.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Malik Washington19/38 · 263 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1555th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Rutgersoffense | Played like RUTG +8.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMaryland | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 48.6%▲9.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.6%▼3.7 | 26th |
| 86th | +0.35▲0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.26 | 14th |
| 87th | +0.51▲0.65 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.51▼0.55 | 13th |
| 72nd | +0.20▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▲0.02 | 28th |
| 41st | 1▲1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Marylandoffense | defenseRutgers | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.8%▲7.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▲6.7 | 43rd |
| 64th | +0.15▲0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▲0.08 | 36th |
| 59th | +0.15▲0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.15▲0.11 | 42nd |
| 67th | +0.16▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.16▲0.06 | 33rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| RutgersRUTG | MarylandMD | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2845th | Own 3166th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.7 pts14th | −2.5 pts6th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7489th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.780th | −10.720th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.9 pts92nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MD +5.8: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.1, kicking −0.6, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs −0.8. | −5.824th | +5.876th |
Season so far
Rutgers2–6 · 40th-hardest schedule
L
vs Massachusetts21–37missed −29
vs Massachusetts21–37missed −29L
at Boston College21–28missed +3
at Boston College21–28missed +3L
vs USC35–42covered +21
vs USC35–42covered +21Wvs Howard58–7covered −42
L
vs Indiana15–47missed +24.5QB change mid-game
vs Indiana15–47missed +24.5QB change mid-gameWat Maryland37–30covered +6
at Maryland37–30covered +6L
at Northwestern14–42missed +14.5
at Northwestern14–42missed +14.5L
vs Michigan21–28covered +16.5
vs Michigan21–28covered +16.5Maryland2–6 · 22nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Hampton62–0covered −45.5
W
at UConn38–14covered −11.5
at UConn38–14covered −11.5L
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5L
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5L
at Nebraska23–48missed +15
at Nebraska23–48missed +15L
at Ohio State16–45covered +31
at Ohio State16–45covered +31Lvs Rutgers30–37missed −6
vs Rutgers30–37missed −6L
vs Illinois17–20missed +2.5
vs Illinois17–20missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 12:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is