Week 1 report · Thu, Sep 3 · 2026 Week 1
Massachusetts
4–4 · Ours #136 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
37–21FinalWe had MASS 14 – RUTG 44
Rutgers
2–6 · Ours #71 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.RUTG 96%MASS won
RUTG 96%MASS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at RUTG −29.5.RUTG −29oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −30.2 · MASS covered by 45
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.0.53.5final 58 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.RUTG −29.5Llost 0.5 to the close
RUTG −29.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
William Watson III19/22 · 197 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3575th pct
- Comp %
- 86.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Dylan Lonergan16/29 · 242 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1029th pct
- Comp %
- 55.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Relieved in Q4 by AJ Surace
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Massachusettsoffense | Played like MASS +12.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseRutgers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.5%▲13.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.5%▼3.8 | 16th |
| 63rd | +0.15▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▲0.09 | 37th |
| 78th | +0.35▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.14 | 22nd |
| 47th | +0.02▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.24 | 53rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Rutgersoffense | defenseMassachusetts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.8%▼2.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.8%▲4.4 | 61st |
| 28th | −0.09▼0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.13 | 72nd |
| 42nd | −0.02▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.11 | 58th |
| 17th | −0.22▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.40 | 83rd |
| 1st | 4▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲3.6 | 99th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MassachusettsMASS | RutgersRUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3996th | Own 2418th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.1 pts95th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6158th | 4929th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +8.074th | −8.026th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +1.1 pts95th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MASS +14.6: turnovers +10.4, field position +5.3, kicking +1.5, 4th downs −1.1, penalty first downs −1.5. | +14.697th | −14.63rd |
Season so far
Massachusetts4–4 · 137th-hardest schedule
Wat Rutgers37–21covered +29
at Rutgers37–21covered +29Wvs Sacred Heart37–10covered −23.5
Wvs Stonehill36–14missed −31
W
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5L
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5L
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5L
at Buffalo18–25push +7
at Buffalo18–25push +7L
at UConn16–35missed +13
at UConn16–35missed +13Rutgers2–6 · 40th-hardest schedule
Lvs Massachusetts21–37missed −29
vs Massachusetts21–37missed −29L
at Boston College21–28missed +3
at Boston College21–28missed +3L
vs USC35–42covered +21
vs USC35–42covered +21Wvs Howard58–7covered −42
L
vs Indiana15–47missed +24.5QB change mid-game
vs Indiana15–47missed +24.5QB change mid-gameW
at Maryland37–30covered +6
at Maryland37–30covered +6L
at Northwestern14–42missed +14.5
at Northwestern14–42missed +14.5L
vs Michigan21–28covered +16.5
vs Michigan21–28covered +16.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 3, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is