Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
Michigan
5–3 · Ours #35 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–21FinalWe had MICH 36 – RUTG 18
Rutgers
2–6 · Ours #108 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MICH 86%MICH won
MICH 86%MICH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MICH −14.MICH −16.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.8 · RUTG covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.4.46.5final 49 · over by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MICH −14Lbeat the close by 2.5
MICH −14Lbeat the close by 2.5The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Michiganoffense | Played like MICH +15.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseRutgers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79th | 50.7%▲10.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.7%▼1.4 | 21st |
| 89th | +0.39▲0.37 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.17 | 11th |
| 96th | +0.81▲0.81 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.81▼0.57 | 4th |
| 63rd | +0.12▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.09 | 38th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Rutgersoffense | defenseMichigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.5%▼13.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.5%▲6.4 | 91st |
| 62nd | +0.14▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.32 | 38th |
| 73rd | +0.29▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.53 | 27th |
| 49th | +0.03▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.19 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MichiganMICH | RutgersRUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2737th | Own 2634th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7183rd | 4017th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +14.085th | −14.015th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. RUTG +2.5: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.1. | −2.537th | +2.563rd |
Season so far
Michigan5–3 · 44th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6W
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5L
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5Wat Rutgers28–21missed −16.5
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5Rutgers2–6 · 36th-hardest schedule
L
vs Massachusetts21–37missed −29
vs Massachusetts21–37missed −29L
at Boston College21–28missed +3
at Boston College21–28missed +3L
vs USC35–42covered +21
vs USC35–42covered +21Wvs Howard58–7covered −42
Lvs Indiana15–47missed +24.5QB change mid-game
vs Indiana15–47missed +24.5QB change mid-gameW
at Maryland37–30covered +6
at Maryland37–30covered +6L
at Northwestern14–42missed +14.5
at Northwestern14–42missed +14.5Lvs Michigan21–28covered +16.5
vs Michigan21–28covered +16.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is