Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Georgia Tech
2–5 · Ours #86Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–32Our projected score
Pittsburgh
5–3 · Ours #52Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.PITT 72%
PITT 72%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.PITT −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.7 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.54.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 54.1 · opened 52.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.PITT −7.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -2.7% EV
PITT −7.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -2.7% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Alberto MendozaSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1066th
- Comp %
- 71.2
- TD
- 10
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 12
Holden GerinerSenior · 2 starts this year · 3 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.01
- Comp %
- 62.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Pittsburghoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseGeorgia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.20 | 129th |
| 63rd | 43.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.7% | 113th |
| 45th | +0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.20 | 117th |
| 102nd | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.20 | 128th |
| 87th | 11.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.6% | 105th |
| Georgia Techoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defensePittsburgh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | +0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.03 | 65th |
| 43rd | 45.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 36.5% | 22nd |
| 61st | +0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.13 | 96th |
| 53rd | +0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.11 | 11th |
| 8th | 16.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.5% | 70th |
Team stats
| PittsburghPITT | Georgia TechGT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.222nd | +2.124th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.048th | −3.1115th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 50%73rd | 55%44th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9872nd | 3.7589th |
| Time of possession | 30:3032nd | 27:12107th |
| Plays per game | 7032nd | 61115th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +4 | −8 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 14 | 14 – 6 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.0%47th | 11.4%123rd |
Season so far
Georgia Tech2–5 · 51st-hardest schedule
L
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5L
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12Wvs Mercer44–11missed −38.5
L
at Stanford27–34missed −3
at Stanford27–34missed −3W
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5L
at Virginia Tech24–34missed +8.5
at Virginia Tech24–34missed +8.5L
vs Boston College27–49missed −6.5
vs Boston College27–49missed −6.5Pittsburgh5–3 · 43rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5W
vs UCF12–7missed −7
vs UCF12–7missed −7W
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5Wvs Bucknell59–0covered −54.5
Wat Virginia Tech35–33covered +2
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2L
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5Lat Boston College21–27missed −6.5
at Boston College21–27missed −6.5L
at Miami23–52missed +20.5
at Miami23–52missed +20.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is