Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Pittsburgh
5–3 · Ours #54 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–52FinalWe had PITT 16 – MIA 36
AP #1Miami
7–0 · Ours #6 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIA 89%MIA won
MIA 89%MIA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MIA −23.MIA −20.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.9 · MIA covered by 8.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.1.51final 75 · over by 24
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.PITT +21Lbeat the close by 0.5
PITT +21Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Holden Geriner18/32 · 268 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1252nd pct
- Comp %
- 56.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Darian Mensah31/37 · 387 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4683rd pct
- Comp %
- 83.8
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Pittsburghoffense | Played like MIA +15.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMiami | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | 45.8%▲3.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.8%▼10.7 | 35th |
| 48th | +0.04▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.08 | 52nd |
| 69th | +0.24▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.05 | 32nd |
| 19th | −0.21▼0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▼0.10 | 82nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Miamioffense | defensePittsburgh | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 46.6%▼6.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.6%▼11.2 | 33rd |
| 88th | +0.37▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.40 | 12th |
| 85th | +0.47▲0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.37 | 15th |
| 73rd | +0.20▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.39 | 27th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| PittsburghPITT | MiamiMIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2631st | Own 3584th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.8 pts70th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 242nd | 5848th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.528th | +7.572nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts17th | −0.7 pts15th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 199th | 049th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MIA +4.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.2, kicking +0.5, penalty first downs +0.8, safeties −2.9. | −4.230th | +4.270th |
Season so far
Pittsburgh5–3 · 44th-hardest schedule
W
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5W
vs UCF12–7missed −7
vs UCF12–7missed −7W
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5Wvs Bucknell59–0covered −54.5
W
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2L
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5L
at Boston College21–27missed −6.5
at Boston College21–27missed −6.5Lat Miami23–52missed +20.5
at Miami23–52missed +20.5Miami7–0 · 62nd-hardest schedule
W
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5Wvs Florida A&M77–7covered −59.5
W
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20W
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41W
at Clemson41–13covered −14
at Clemson41–13covered −14W
vs Florida State43–35missed −19.5
vs Florida State43–35missed −19.5Wvs Pittsburgh52–23covered −20.5
vs Pittsburgh52–23covered −20.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is