Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 11:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Oregon State
5–2 · Ours #42Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–25Our projected score
Fresno State
4–3 · Ours #62Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ORST 61%
ORST 61%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ORST −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.4 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.57.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.1 · opened 57.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.FRES +6.0-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -3.0% EV
FRES +6.0-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -3.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Braden AtkinsonSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3313th
- Comp %
- 69.3
- TD
- 26
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 9
Jayden MandalJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1259th
- Comp %
- 62.8
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Fresno Stateoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseOregon State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | +0.08 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.04 | 69th |
| 79th | 41.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.4% | 61st |
| 47th | +0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 80th |
| 109th | 0.00 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 62nd |
| 54th | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 9.2% | 14th |
| Oregon Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseFresno State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | +0.24 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.04 | 70th |
| 9th | 50.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.0% | 80th |
| 16th | +0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.02 | 46th |
| 18th | +0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.10 | 101st |
| 16th | 15.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.4% | 66th |
Team stats
| Fresno StateFRES | Oregon StateORST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.436th | +0.081st |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +9.62nd | −2.3108th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 51%71st | 58%25th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.0865th | 5.343rd |
| Time of possession | 26:42114th | 31:0027th |
| Plays per game | 60123rd | 737th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +9 | +3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 5 – 14 | 6 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.7%58th | 15.3%42nd |
Season so far
Oregon State5–2 · 103rd-hardest schedule
L
at Houston20–33covered +21
at Houston20–33covered +21L
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5Wvs Montana52–17covered −17.5
W
at UTEP33–7covered −11
at UTEP33–7covered −11W
at Colorado State56–26covered −7
at Colorado State56–26covered −7W
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5W
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5Fresno State4–3 · 115th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13Wat Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5Lat San Diego State23–26missed −7
at San Diego State23–26missed −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is