Board · Tue, Nov 3 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 10Week 10 report
Ohio
6–2 · Ours #76Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–18Our projected score
Akron
1–7 · Ours #135Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.OHIO 84%
OHIO 84%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.OHIO −12.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.4 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −11.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.49oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.5 · first seen 49.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.OHIO −12.5-110 DraftKings52% to cover · -1.6% EV
OHIO −12.5-110 DraftKings52% to cover · -1.6% EVThe matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Akronoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseOhio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117th | −0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.03 | 65th |
| 91st | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.4% | 58th |
| 123rd | −0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 70th |
| 63rd | +0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.02 | 66th |
| 30th | 14.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.9% | 49th |
| Ohiooffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseAkron | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.15 | 118th |
| 25th | 48.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.0% | 104th |
| 62nd | +0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.16 | 106th |
| 38th | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.14 | 113th |
| 51st | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.6% | 122nd |
Team stats
| AkronAKR | OhioOHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.3121st | +2.813th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −4.3126th | +1.064th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 41%125th | 59%18th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.37113th | 3.9179th |
| Time of possession | 28:0094th | 25:06124th |
| Plays per game | 6579th | 62110th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −7 | 0 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 17 – 10 | 11 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 10.4%132nd | 14.7%60th |
Season so far
Ohio6–2 · 136th-hardest schedule
L
at Nebraska21–49missed +24
at Nebraska21–49missed +24W
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2L
at South Alabama36–41covered +7
at South Alabama36–41covered +7Wvs Stonehill35–7missed −32.5
W
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5W
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5W
at Sacramento State48–7covered −17
at Sacramento State48–7covered −17W
vs Eastern Michigan24–20missed −10
vs Eastern Michigan24–20missed −10Akron1–7 · 104th-hardest schedule
L
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
L
at Minnesota7–41missed +23
at Minnesota7–41missed +23L
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5Lat Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7Lvs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5L
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5Lat Kent State20–35missed +3
at Kent State20–35missed +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is